12.1 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment
Futures: Overnight, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract AD2601 opened at 21,070 yuan/mt, climbed to a high of 21,175 yuan/mt, fell to a low of 20,730 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,870 yuan/mt, down 320 yuan/mt or 1.51% from the previous close. Trading volume was 11,931, and open interest was 17,376. This week, it closed with a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, retreated after testing the resistance level of 21,440, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The K value was 59.93, the D value was 64.49, and the J value was 50.8. The J line turned downward, signaling a short-term pullback. The current contract is in a pullback phase after the previous surge, with clear resistance near 21,400. In the short term, focus on the effectiveness of the support level at 20,730. If the support is broken, it may fall further; if it holds steady, there is a possibility of a rebound and recovery.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on December 8, the SMM ADC12 spot price theoretically traded at a premium of 615 yuan/mt to the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (AD2601) at 10:15.
Warrant Daily Report: SHFE data showed that on December 9, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 67,459 mt, an increase of 901 mt from the previous trading day. Among them, the total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,757 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Guangdong was 21,407 mt, an increase of 183 mt from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Jiangsu was 11,509 mt, an increase of 570 mt from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Zhejiang was 23,058 mt, an increase of 718 mt from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Chongqing was 6,308 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Sichuan was 420 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Aluminum Scrap: On Tuesday, spot primary aluminum prices fell from the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 21,880 yuan/mt. The aluminum scrap market followed the decline collectively. Baled UBC was quoted centrally at 16,350-16,850 yuan/mt (ex-tax), shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted centrally at 18,200-18,750 yuan/mt (ex-tax). Baled UBC held steady WoW, while clean tapping aluminum wire, mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint, mechanical casting aluminum scrap, scrap motorcycle wheel, and mixed aluminum tense scrap prices were down 25-100 yuan/mt WoW. The aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week, with shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) mainstream range at 18,500-19,200 yuan/mt (ex-tax). The overall tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues. It is necessary to closely track fluctuations in primary aluminum, environmental protection policies, and downstream procurement pace, and be wary of the risk of a pullback from highs.
Silicon Metal: In the past two days, silicon metal futures prices fell significantly for two consecutive days. Yesterday, the SI2601 contract closed at 8,340 yuan/mt at the tail of the session, down 335 yuan/mt from the previous day. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt. During the futures decline, spot cargo prices from futures-to-spot arbitragers followed the drop. Purchases by some downstream users and traders increased, and transactions were relatively good. Some spot-futures price spread quotes strengthened by 50-100 yuan/mt. As the silicon price fell rapidly, silicon metal producers mainly adopted a wait-and-see approach, either temporarily suspending quotes or maintaining quotes steady from last week.
Overseas market: Current ADC12 offers in the Southeast Asian market were at $2,640–2,660/mt, with the immediate import loss widening to above 400 yuan/mt, further suppressing the activity of the import arbitrage window.
Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of December 9, the weekly social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in the three major consumption areas—Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi—totaled 49,157 mt, down 61 mt from the previous trading day.
Summary: Spot side, yesterday's SMM A00 aluminum spot price was lowered by 40 yuan/mt to 21,880 yuan/mt, while the ADC12 price held steady at 21,600 yuan/mt. Influenced by the high-level pullback in aluminum prices, cost support from aluminum scrap continued to weaken, with overall pressure shifting downward, and the spot market showed a pattern of weak operation. Demand side, aluminum futures fell sharply this week, reigniting wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises, and market trading activity was moderate. Considering the combined impact of supply-demand dynamics and cost factors, the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy is expected to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]
